The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 12 January, 2026

White House Summit Exposes Clash Over Greenland

The Guardian reported on January 14 that talks between US officials and Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers at the White House failed to resolve disagreements over Greenland’s future. Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Greenland’s Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt met Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio on January 14th for discussions regarding President Trump’s desire to control Greenland. Rasmussen and Motzfeldt stated afterward that the US remains intent on Greenland and that this position is “unacceptable”, though the two sides agreed to create a working group to address concerns regarding the territory. (The Guardian)

Take 1: This failed summit exposes the clash between Trump’s territorial ambitions and Arctic sovereignty norms. Despite Rubio insisting on plans to buy the island, Trump refuses to rule out military force and insists that Russia and China will take Greenland if the US doesn’t step in. Additionally, Trump’s ambassador nominee to Iceland joking about Iceland becoming a US state demonstrates this isn’t limited to Greenland but represents a broader view of Arctic territories as subject to American acquisition. Trump’s focus on the Arctic reflects a strategic shift where the region has become central to US national security calculations, with territorial control viewed as essential to countering Russian and Chinese expansion. Both Nuuk and Copenhagen, along with many EU countries, have stated a “fundamental disagreement” with Washington’s intent to control Greenland and view it as an inhibition of sovereignty. Despite Greenland and Denmark officials defending established sovereignty at the summit, Washington’s approach to Greenland as a negotiable territory raises several concerns. Great power competition and US security interests are taking precedence over principles of self-determination, with Trump refusing to accept that Greenland’s residents, who have been on the path towards independence for several decades, have the right to determine their own future. The people of Greenland plan to take to the streets in protest on January 17th, trying to reaffirm the statement of its officials that Greenland cannot be bought. (Arctic Today, BBC News, High North News, Reuters)

European NATO Members Deploy to Greenland in Response to American Threats

High North News reported on January 15 that Denmark and Greenland announced increased military activity in and around Greenland in cooperation with NATO allies. The enhanced presence will include aircraft, vessels, and soldiers from NATO partners, with exercise activities focusinsg on guarding critical infrastructure, assisting local authorities, and conducting naval operations. Both Denmark’s Minister of Defense, Troels Lund Poulsen, and Greenland’s Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt emphasized the importance of Arctic security for European security and the NATO alliance. (High North News)

Take 2: This European military response is a direct reaction to Trump’s attempts to acquire Greenland, with the crisis expanding beyond Arctic states to trigger a broader NATO and EU response. France, Germany, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, and the UK are deploying military personnel to Greenland in alliance-wide solidarity with Denmark against American pressure. On January 14th, the French Foreign Minister announced plans to open a consulate in Greenland next month, showing how Arctic security has become critical for all EU members, with non-Arctic countries recognizing that threats to northern sovereignty affect the entire alliance. Trump’s threats have unified European NATO members in defending Danish sovereignty against outside control. Greenland’s insistence that defense must occur through NATO rather than bilateral US arrangements attempts to use alliance structures as protection against American unilateralism. The alliance currently lies at a fragile point with many leaders viewing an American pursuit of Greenland by force a likely breaking point of NATO. This European response emphasizes Greenland’s statement that Arctic security cannot be separated from European security, and this integrated defense can occur with or without America based on how it demonstrates commitment to NATO rules and alliance principles. (Arctic Today, BBC News, High North News, Reuters) 

The Arctic’s “Last Ice Area” Breaking Down

Science reported on January 13 that researchers conducting the first comprehensive oceanographic mission through Canada’s Queen Elizabeth Islands found the region’s sea ice weaker than expected. The Canadian Coast Guard ship Amundsen surveyed the area last summer, with expedition leader David Babb noting that ice floes once several meters thick were broken and soft. Analysis presented at the ArcticNet annual science meeting showed ice in the region has started melting five days earlier per decade since 1997. (Science)

Take 3: The degradation of sea ice in the Queen Elizabeth Islands challenges assumptions about Arctic refuge zones and accelerates timelines for ice-free conditions. This region has long been considered the “last ice area” where the oldest and thickest sea ice accumulates in protected fjords. The area was expected to preserve ice coverage long after other Arctic regions became ice-free, but Babb’s results showed that the multiyear ice here is soft and breaking apart. Based on the discovery, climate models predicting the Queen Elizabeth Islands as a persistent ice stronghold likely need substantial revision, suggesting ice-free Arctic summers could arrive sooner than current projections indicate. The finding also has important impacts for Arctic ecosystems as this refuge area was predicted to support polar bears and other ice-dependent species long after surrounding regions became uninhabitable. The accelerated loss of this final stronghold forces a complete reassessment of how Arctic wildlife can survive in a warming world without any remaining ice refuges. (Nature, The Guardian)

Sweden and Finland Push EU Sanctions Targeting Russian Arctic Energy Exports

High North News reported on January 14 that Sweden’s Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard and Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen called on the EU to expand sanctions against Russian shipping. The proposal would ban insurance and port repair services for vessels transporting oil, gas, and coal and target services critical to Russia’s Arctic energy exports. (High North News)

Take 4: The proposal targets a crucial aspect of Russia’s Arctic energy exports by eliminating the European services that specialized ice-class vessels require. Russia’s Arc7 LNG carriers require regular maintenance that domestic shipyards cannot easily replicate, making access to European facilities essential for continued Arctic operations. Denmark’s Fayard shipyard provided dry-dock services to five Arc7 LNG carriers serving Russia’s Yamal LNG project in 2025 and could service more vessels in 2026. The loss of Danish shipyard Damen in 2025 already narrowed Russia’s options, and closing Fayard would leave Russia no options other than costly detours to Asian yards. Additionally, Russian vessels need Western liability coverage to access international ports and transit routes so the push to eliminate insurance coverage strikes another key vulnerability. The UK has already announced a ban on maritime services for Russian energy shipping, scheduled to take effect in 2026, setting a precedent that Sweden and Finland hope the EU will follow. The aggressive stance from Sweden, Finland, and the UK signals a strategic shift in using Arctic policy as leverage, transforming the region into a pressure point to force an end to the war in Ukraine. (High North News, Reuters, The Barents Observer)

Canadian Yard Signs Deal to Supply Icebreaker Design for U.S. Arctic Security Cutter Program

High North News reported on January 15 that Canada’s Seaspan Shipyards has struck a deal with US yard Bollinger Shipyards and Finland’s Rauma Marine Constructions to supply its Multi-Purpose Icebreaker (MPI) design for the US Coast Guard’s Arctic Security Cutter program. Under the agreement, Seaspan will provide its production-ready MPI design and supply-chain packages to enable rapid construction of six vessels, with two to be built at Rauma in Finland and four at Bollinger’s US facilities. The first Arctic Security Cutters are expected to be ready by 2028. (High North News)

Take 5: This trilateral shipbuilding agreement marks a significant step in Western efforts to close the Arctic icebreaker gap with Russia and China. By leveraging Seaspan’s production-ready MPI design already developed under Canada’s National Shipbuilding Strategy, the program avoids the decade-long timelines and cost overruns that have plagued previous US icebreaker efforts. The collaboration demonstrates how Western allies can pool expertise to compete with Asian shipbuilding capacity, with Finnish Arctic construction experience and Canadian design capabilities enabling US fleet expansion. The emphasis on interoperability between Canadian and American Coast Guard fleets reflects the multilateral ICE Pact framework, where Arctic nations share capabilities and coordinate Arctic operations. This agreement represents a needed advancement in Western Arctic capabilities at a time when South Korea plans its first trip through the Northern Sea Route and China continues expanding its icebreaker fleet. (High North News, Reuters)